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Fertility's steady decline -

Following the baby boom from 1946 to 1964, birth rates fell throughout the early 1970s, then slightly fluctuated in the following decades. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of daily births in the US dropped on average 0.96% a year.

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Fertility rate -

The fertility rate (the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime) has gone from 4.84 in 1950, to 2.23 in 2021 and will continue to drop globally to 1.59 by 2100.

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Maintaining a stable population -

To maintain stable population numbers, countries need a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Analysis estimates that by 2100, 97% of countries will have a fertility rate below replacement level.

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European countries -

The total fertility rate in Western Europe is estimated to fall from 1.53 in 2021 to 1.44 in 2050 and 1.37 in 2100. Eastern European countries will see a fall from 1.38 in 2021 to 1.19 in 2100, while Central Europe will see a fall from 1.48 to 1.21.

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Sub-Saharan Africa -

While some countries will experience a "baby bust," the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to triple in size to more than three billion people by 2100. Nigeria is projected to become the world's second biggest country with a population of 791 million.

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Economic inequality -

Births in low-income regions will rise from 18% in 2021 to 35% in 2100, resulting in the resource-limited countries in sub-Saharan Africa struggling to support the fastest-growing populations on the planet.

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Incentives -

Some countries have tried implementing attractive policies and incentives, such as enhanced maternity and paternity leave, free childcare, and extra employment rights, in a bid to increase fertility rates.

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South Korea -

In South Korea, many women are rejecting dating, marriage, and childbirth as a protest against sexism and concerns related to career advancement and the rising costs of raising children. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world, with the population expected to halve by 2100.

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Fewer kindergarteners -

In 2022, Alaska's Juneau School District saw 282 kindergarteners start school, 108 fewer than expected. Birth rate data shows the trend is likely to continue.

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Urbanization -

Worldwide, increased urbanization reduces fertility rates, often because urban housing is more expensive, and the costs of raising children in an urban environment are higher.

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Education -

Greater access to education for women contributes to lower fertility rates by expanding career opportunities and promoting personal autonomy.

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Economic factors -

The cost of raising children has increased, causing many families to have fewer children or to delay childbirth due to financial constraints.

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Healthcare and contraception -

Improved access to healthcare and contraception allows women to control their reproductive choices, which contributes to lower birth rates.

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Delayed parenthood -

People are choosing to have children later in life due to career aspirations, educational pursuits, and seeking broader life experiences, contributing to fewer total births.

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Cultural shifts -

Attitudes toward family, gender roles, and marriage are changing, with fewer societal expectations to have large families.

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Environmental concerns -

A growing awareness of climate change has caused uncertainty for the future and has influenced people's decisions to have fewer children.

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Aging population -

As birth rates decline, populations are aging. By 2050, the world's population of people aged 60 years and older will double to 2.1 billion.

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Economic impact of aging populations -

An aging population can affect economic growth, work, retirement, and how families function. Chronic disease and disability may be more prevalent, resulting in an increased expenditure on healthcare.

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Labor market implications -

With fewer young people entering the workforce, economic growth could be affected, and retirement may no longer be an option.

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Migration and immigration -

Countries with declining fertility rates may rely on immigration to offset labor shortages and maintain population levels. Open-border policies, which many Western democracies are vehemently against, may need to be considered to sustain economic growth.

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Health and longevity -

As life expectancy increases alongside declining birth rates, healthcare systems must adapt to support an aging population with different needs.

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Cost -

A significant part of government budgets is already allocated to healthcare and pensions, but as the population ages, taxes will need to increase substantially. This higher taxation, however, could discourage people from working or starting new businesses.

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Global competition -

Countries with lower fertility rates may face increased competition for talent and a skilled workforce from countries with higher birth rates.

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Environmental impacts -

Falling fertility rates could help reduce carbon emissions and alleviate some strain on global food systems.

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Urban planning and infrastructure -

As populations increase in cities, governments need to adapt urban planning and infrastructure to support an aging population.

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Impact on rural areas -

Lower fertility rates and migration to cities may result in the depopulation of rural areas, impacting local economies and communities.

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Undoing progress -

As population decline is likely to become an acute policy concern in many nations, research warns against undoing the progress to women's health, women's rights, and their access to education.

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Societal adaptation -

Societies around the world will need to adapt their systems to the new reality of falling fertility rates, potentially leading to new social norms and structures.

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Global collaboration -

Addressing the challenges of declining fertility rates requires global collaboration. Countries should share knowledge and work together to find solutions.

Sources: (CNN) (BBC) (KTOO) (Barron's)

See also: The countries with the highest fertility rates

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