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Once peaceful -

Back in 2018, Ecuador had one of the lowest rates of homicide in South America. In the intervening years, the rate of crime has exploded, turning life upside down for Ecuadorians.

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Epicenter for violence -

Ecuador was considered an "island of peace" between Colombia and Peru, but those days are over now. Instead, it has become an epicenter for violence.

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Rafael Correa -

Between 2007 and 2017, the populist president Rafael Correa oversaw a reduction in the homicide rate to a historic low. Social spending doubled, GDP grew, and institutional reforms were made.

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A misstep -

However, in the name of national sovereignty, he closed a US military base in Manta, Ecuador, and ended cooperation with the US Drug Enforcement Administration, leaving one million square kilometers of coastline essentially unmonitored. Narcotrafficking vessels began flocking to the area from better-policed Peruvian and Colombian waters.

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Lenín Moreno -

From 2017 to 2021, Correa's immediate successor, Lenín Moreno, made security an afterthought. He approached the International Monetary Fund for finance in 2019, after a decade without economic assistance.

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Gang violence -

Correa’s Ministry of Justice was scrapped and replaced with an agency. Soon afterwards, control was lost at the country’s mega-prisons that house tens of thousands of inmates. Combined with an economic downturn and austerity measures, organized crime began to thrive.

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Collusion -

As gang violence descended on Ecuador, allegations emerged linking members of the government to the Albanian mafia. The military and navy were also hit by crime collusion allegations.

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Protests -

Inequality had begun to drastically rise in the country. The IMF's austerity measures had laid off thousands of public sector workers, including in the health sector: leaving the country less prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The pandemic -

In 2020, Ecuador became one of the pandemic's hotspots, experiencing one of the highest per capita death rates in the world.

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Guillermo Lasso -

Guillermo Lasso, a conservative banker, won the presidential elections in 2021. He helped to stem the COVID outbreak in the country and introduced supports for the population.

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Guillermo Lasso -

However, at the same time he continued to roll back on the structural economic reforms introduced between 2007-2017.

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Unrest -

Violence continued to increase, including prison massacres. Aggressive mass protests against austerity measures erupted in 2022, chipping away at public order and state legitimacy.

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Unrest -

In May 2023, Lasso decided to dissolve the legislature. He was able to rule by decree and push forward a number of initiatives aimed at deepening privatization. An election was scheduled for August 2023.

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Fernando Villavicencio -

Journalist, trade unionist, and politician Fernando Villavicencio announced he would be running as a candidate in the Ecuadorian presidential election in 2023.

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Assassination -

Villavicencio called Ecuador a "narco-state." In August 2023, he was assassinated in broad daylight after a campaign rally in Quito.

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Assassination -

An anti-corruption candidate, he had accused the Los Choneros and Macías gangs of threatening him in the days before he was killed.

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A hard line -

Daniel Noboa, a then-35-year-old center-right politician, won the presidency in Ecuador in October 2023. He pledged a hard line on gang violence.

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Fito's escape from Guiyanquil prison -

In January 2024, drug-gang kingpin Adolfo Macías, alias Fito, who is one of the country's most dangerous criminals, vanished from his cell. The convicted leader of the powerful drug gang Los Choneros was serving time for trafficking, murder, and organized crime.

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An outbreak of violence -

Word had spread that the new hard line president was going to move key gang members to a prison with higher security (La Roca). In response to this transfer, gang members were most likely told to fight back and did so, taking guards and members of staff hostage.

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On-air captives -

On January 9, 2024, hooded, armed men stormed TC Televisión (a TV station in Guayaquil) at 2 pm local time, attempting to take the staff inside hostage.

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On-air captives -

In the middle of a live on-air broadcast, staff members at the TV station were rounded up and made to lie down on the floor as one gunman proclaimed, "You cannot play with the mafia."

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Release -

Following police negotiations, around 45 minutes later the hostages were released unharmed and the 13 gunmen inside laid down their weapons. The TV station was taken off air immediately.

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State of emergency -

The state of emergency declared just two days earlier was then declared a "state of internal armed conflict." Armed forces were deployed to surround media outlets.

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Not just the TV station -

That same day, explosions had occurred around the country as shootings, car bombings, and arson attacks were carried out by gang members.

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Troops deployed -

More than 22,000 troops were deployed to cities to "neutralize" the gang threat. Noboa designated drug trafficking gangs terrorist groups.

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Neutralizing the threat -

He posted the names of gang members on X (formerly Twitter), and by January 10 over 300 people had been arrested for acts of terrorism.

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Neutralizing the threat -

Over the following days, the situation in Guayaquil led to eerily empty streets as many shop owners abandoned their businesses to avoid being looted, or worse.

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Human rights groups -

Some human rights groups have cautioned Noboa's approach, fearing it might lead to more carnage, not less. Either way, it appears the country is at a breaking point with gang violence.

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European drug trade -

The situation in Ecuador is being fueled by the appetite for cocaine in Europe, which is in such high demand that it makes it unlikely there will be an end to the problems in Ecuador anytime soon.

Sources: (Centre for Economic Policy Research) (The Guardian) (The Economist) (BBC) (Forbes) (NBC News) (The New York Times)

See also: The most dangerous cities in South America

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