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Formation of the coalition -

The "Coalition of the Willing" emerged in response to Donald Trump's surprise engagement with Vladimir Putin in March. European leaders moved quickly to reassert their influence over Ukraine's future.

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Aims and objectives -

The coalition's primary goal is to provide security guarantees for Ukraine in case a ceasefire or peace deal is reached. It also pledges to enhance military support and strengthen economic sanctions on Russia.

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The reassurance force -

A key element of the coalition is the establishment of a "reassurance force" composed of Western soldiers. This force would be deployed in Ukraine only after a ceasefire or peace agreement is signed. 

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The key participants -

The coalition includes 33 delegations, primarily from Europe, along with Canada and Australia. Leaders from NATO and the EU are also engaged in shaping its direction.

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Notable absences -

Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and Malta have opted out due to neutrality or political disagreements. Switzerland and some Balkan nations have also remained outside the coalition.

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Avoiding past mistakes -

Citing the Minsk Accords' failure as a warning, European leaders stress strict enforcement of any peace deal with Russia, ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty through a robust and enforceable security framework.

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The role of the UK and France -

As the primary architects of the coalition, the UK and France provide diplomatic leadership, military resources, and strategic direction to ensure that Ukraine remains secure against future threats.

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A United European front -

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the coalition as a sign of Europe's renewed strength and unity. 

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Macron's vision for peace -

French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that the goal is lasting peace. He insists Ukraine must be in a strong negotiating position to ensure stability across Europe.

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Military and financial contributions -

Each coalition member contributes in different ways, from direct troop deployment to financial aid and weapons supply. The UK, for example, pledged £1.6 billion (US$2 billion) for air defense missiles.

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US absence -

The US isn't part of the coalition, as Trump prioritized direct talks with Putin. However, Europe hopes for US support, like intelligence sharing or air protection, to strengthen security commitments.

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Macron's vision for European defense -

Macron has also used the coalition as part of a broader push for European strategic autonomy, emphasizing that Europe must be prepared to defend itself independently.

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Strengthening NATO coordination -

Despite its independent structure, the coalition works closely with NATO to ensure its actions align with broader Western security objectives and existing military commitments.

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Russia's response -

Russia has strongly condemned the coalition, arguing that any deployment of Western troops in Ukraine would be a direct provocation. However, coalition leaders dismiss these threats.

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The challenge of troop deployment -

France and the UK are leading the commitment to send troops. Other nations, including Sweden and Belgium, are considering participation, while some remain firmly opposed.

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Poland and Greece's concerns -

Despite strong support for Ukraine, Poland and Greece have ruled out sending troops. Each faces regional security concerns that take precedence over deployment to Ukraine.

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Italy's skepticism -

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has expressed doubt about the feasibility of Western troop deployment, questioning its effectiveness in achieving long-term stability.

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China's position -

China initially expressed interest in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, but later rejected the possibility of joining the coalition, maintaining its stance as a neutral actor in the conflict.

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The sanctions strategy -

The coalition has agreed that no sanctions on Russia should be lifted as part of a temporary ceasefire. Instead, sanction relief would be conditional on a comprehensive peace deal.

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European defense investments -

The European Commission has proposed an €800 billion (approximately US$870 billion) defense fund to bolster Europe's military capabilities, ensuring that the continent can sustain long-term support for Ukraine.

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Strategic positioning of forces -

Western troops, if deployed, would be stationed in key locations like cities, ports, and power plants. This positioning aims to deter Russia without escalating the war.

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Ukraine's demands -

Ukraine has insisted that any peace agreement must guarantee its sovereignty and security. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged coalition members to finalize deployment plans as soon as possible.

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Coordination with the UN and OSCE -

While the coalition is leading the military aspect, peacekeeping missions along the front lines might be handled by the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

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Avoiding a frozen conflict -

Leaders fear that an unresolved ceasefire without proper enforcement could lead to a "frozen conflict," similar to Georgia and Moldova, where Russian influence remains destabilizing.

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Potential Russian retaliation -

Moscow may respond with cyberattacks, hybrid warfare tactics, or energy supply disruptions. Coalition members are preparing countermeasures to mitigate these risks.

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Public support and political challenges -

Public opinion across coalition nations varies. While there is strong support in countries like Poland and the Baltics, skepticism remains in Western Europe about direct military involvement.

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A model for future European security -

Some analysts see the coalition as a test case for future European security cooperation. If successful, it could lead to more permanent defense structures independent of US leadership.

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Long-term commitment -

The coalition is not just a short-term initiative. Its leaders have made it clear that support for Ukraine will continue well beyond a peace agreement to ensure long-term stability.

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The road ahead -

With negotiations ongoing and military commitments taking shape, the coalition is preparing for the next phase of its mission. 

Sources: (Euronews) (Politico) (Independent) 

See also: European countries with the strongest militaries

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