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Nature's steam engines - Hurricanes are fueled by ocean heat, turning this energy into a destructive force. With rising ocean temperatures, these storms are becoming more unpredictable, taking different paths, and becoming more dangerous.

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Race to understand hurricanes - Scientists are working to understand how hurricanes are changing and how we can adapt to these new patterns in the face of growing risks.

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Longer hurricane season - Climate change is lengthening the hurricane season. An early start in the season aligns with expectations, as warmer oceans allow hurricanes to form earlier.

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Hurricane Helene -

Hurricane Helene, formed near Mexico in September 2024, is an example of the increasing intensity and unpredictability of hurricanes in today's climate.

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Early seasons and long seasons - With the warming climate, hurricanes may start earlier in the year and continue later, potentially creating longer seasons with more frequent storms.

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Hurricanes responding to the environment -

Hurricanes respond to their surrounding environment, behaving differently as conditions shift. If the ocean and atmosphere resemble late-summer conditions, hurricanes will behave accordingly.

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Hurricane Lee -

In September 2023, Hurricane Lee, one of the strongest storms to form in the Atlantic in recent years, did so with conditions that should have prevented a hurricane formation. Namely, there was greater wind shear and atmospheric stability.

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Wind shear -

Vertical wind shears or changes in wind speed and direction at different heights can disrupt a hurricane’s structure.

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Hurricane formation -

Given that the shear occurred and Hurricane Lee still was able to form was considered a “nasty surprise.” It’s possible that the warmth of the ocean outpowered the influence of the shear.

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Hurricane capacity -

Typically, hurricanes in the Atlantic don’t reach their full capacity. They will either make landfall before reaching their greatest intensity or will run into high wind shear that calms the storm.

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Faster intensification -

According to James Kossin, a climate and atmospheric scientist retired from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is some evidence that intensification rates are increasing as the ocean gets warmer.

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Stronger peak intensity - As the years pass, the intensity of hurricanes has been rising. In fact, between 1979 and 2017, storm intensity increased approximately 6% per decade.

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Speed today - Storms today are 25% more likely than 40 years ago to reach 111 mph (180 km/h), classifying them as major hurricanes.

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Ocean temperatures - The ocean temperature is what defines how intense a hurricane will be, and according to a May 2024 BBC analysis, the world’s ocean temperatures broke records every day the preceding year.

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Slowing down overall - While wind speeds inside the hurricane are speeding up, the overall hurricane movement within their path over the ocean and land is slowing down.

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Statistics -

A 2018 study done by Kossin showed that hurricanes near the US have slowed about 17% since the start of the 20th century. Even more, tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific slowed by as much as 20%.

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Reason for the slowing - There is speculation that the reason for the slowdown is the uneven way climate change impacts the heating of the world.

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The Arctic -

The Arctic warms nearly four times faster than the rest of the world meaning that the temperature difference between the Arctic and tropics is narrowing. Since temperature gradients drive the winds it can be assumed that a stronger gradient means stronger winds.

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Expect more rain - As hurricanes slow, there will likely be more rain also. The more rain there is in a location, the greater the potential for flooding.

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Winds - During hurricanes, there is usually damage caused by winds. Thus if a hurricane lasts longer, it’s more likely to knock something over, like houses or trees.

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Churning waters - When deep warm water is present, hurricanes continue intensifying because they don't encounter colder water.

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Changing track -

It’s important to also think about the hurricane's track. According to a study by Kossin and colleagues, “hurricanes were moving about one degree of latitude away from the tropics per decade.”

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What does this mean? - If the track of the hurricane is shifting then it could mean that communities that weren’t affected before might be soon.

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The US protective barrier is failing - Climate change is altering wind shear patterns over the Atlantic, with key regions experiencing shifting conditions. There are two main areas of wind shear: one in the Main Development Region (MDR) where hurricanes form, and another off the east coast of the US, forming a kind of "seesaw" effect.

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How it works - When wind shear is low in the MDR, it tends to be high near the US coast, creating a barrier that weakens storms as they approach the mainland. However, this protective barrier does not affect storms hitting the Caribbean.

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Research - Unfortunately, research suggests that climate change is eroding this intensification barrier, making future storms potentially stronger as they approach the US.

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Countermeasures - To help minimize the destruction that these storms are causing, the development of coastal regions should be minimized or stopped altogether. 

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Adaptations -

For those who live in ‘typical’ hurricane paths, it’s important to make adaptations to buildings to help preserve homes, businesses, and other infrastructure.

Sources: (BBC) (The Weather Channel)

See also: What do hurricane categories actually mean?

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