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Overview of the study -

There was a study done in San Antonio, Texas before the 2022 gubernatorial election to see if implicit or explicit measures of political preference would predict the behavior of voters.

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Implicit vs explicit measure -

An implicit measure is an indirect method that is used to assess attitudes that individuals may not willingly report or may not even be aware of. On the other hand, an explicit measure is where data is received directly from the source, such as from a survey. 

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Context -

The 2022 midterm elections took place only a few months after the United States overturned Roe v. Wade. This is important to note as the political climate at the time may have had an influence on the participants' voting choices. 

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Who did the study include? -

The sample included college students, both decided and undecided voters, who reflected the demographic makeup of south-central Texas at the time.

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How was the study done? -

Political statements were shown to participants one word at a time and the last word in each statement made it more pro-Republican or pro-Democrat.

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Stimulus presentation -

The words would appear on the screen for 200 milliseconds each, with 300 milliseconds between words. The final word (target) was shown for 1000 milliseconds, during which participants' brain responses were measured.

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What are N400s? -

The N400 is a brainwave measured through electroencephalography (EEG), which reflects the brain’s response to stimuli—in this case, political statements.

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What do N400s signal? -

According to Psypost, N400s are linked to “processing meaning and detecting when something is unexpected or doesn’t align with what we already believe or know.” For example, when a person reads a statement that contradicts a strong belief, the brain will generate a stronger N400 response.

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Implicit measurement: N400s -

EEG signals were then captured using 26 electrodes placed on the participants’ scalps, with a focus on central-parietal sites where N400 effects are typically strongest.

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How long were the N400s measured for? -

The EEG recorded brain activity from 100 milliseconds before the target word (the final word in each statement) up to 600 milliseconds after.

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Implicit measurement: Child-rearing values scale -

Participants were asked to choose which values (curiosity vs. good manners, obedience vs. self-reliance) they considered most important when raising a child.

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Child-rearing values relevance -

This piece of information was used to indirectly measure authoritarianism or a personality trait that is correlated with political preferences.

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Explicit measurement: political preferences -

Participants responded to different political statements by pressing a button indicating whether they agreed or disagreed, a process known as EPI or the Explicit Preference Index (EPI).

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EPI calculation - The EPI score was calculated by subtracting the percentage of pro-Democratic statements the participant disagreed with and the percentage of pro-Republican statements they agreed with from the percentage of pro-Republican statements they disagreed with and pro-Democratic statements agreed with.

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What did the scores signify? -

A higher EPI score indicated alignment with Republican views, while lower scores indicated Democratic alignment.

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Additional explicit measures: self-reported data -

Participants provided their voting history, party affiliation, and voting intentions (Democrat, Republican, or undecided).

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Perception of the economy -

Individuals in the study were asked about their views on the current state of the economy, which is considered a key factor in voting behavior.

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Approval of the president’s job performance -

Participants indicated whether they approved or disapproved of Joe Biden's performance as president, another predictor of voting choice.

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The most important problems facing the country -

Respondents were asked to indicate what was the most important issue facing the country for them. Responses to these types of surveys are typically used to analyze public opinion ahead of elections.

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Results: Democrats -

The Democratic voters from the study showed a larger N400 brain response after they read statements that were pro-Republican.

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Results: Republicans -

Republicans had N400 responses that were similar for both pro-Republican and pro-Democratic statements. This means that their brain did not react strongly to statements that were opposed to their political beliefs.

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Results: undecided voters -

Undecided respondents who voted Republican actually had N400 responses that were more similar to the N400 responses of decided Democrat voters.

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Overall votes - A total of 55 participants were surveyed and 31 ended up voting for the Democratic candidate for governor. Only 24 voted for the Republican candidate.

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Does N400 predict voter behavior? -

N400 doesn’t reliably predict voter behavior. It did capture their implicit reactions to political statements but it didn’t determine how they would vote in the end.

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What does influence voter behavior? - It seems that a person’s political identity (Democrat or Republican) was tied more closely to voting behavior, especially when compared to the preferences revealed by the N400 brainwaves.

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Best predictors of voting patterns -

Explicitly political preferences or those that the respondents explicitly stated were considered to be the best predictors of how someone would vote.

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Research limitations -

As with all research, there were some limitations, including a relatively small sample size that was mostly young adults from one university. Any generalizations from this study could be limited due to this fact.

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Additional research limitations -

This study was carried out at a particularly politically charged moment in time. Additionally, political views often evolve with time and education. 

Sources: (PsyPost) (Scientific Reports) (Science Direct)

See also: The most intriguing neurological conditions ever recorded

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