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Introducing the Saffir-Simpson scale -

The system currently used to classify hurricanes in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean is the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS). It is more commonly referred to as the Saffir-Simpson scale.

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Decades-old -

Developed by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson in the early 1970s, the Saffir-Simpson scale has been used to categorize hurricanes for more than 50 years.

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How it works -

The Saffir-Simpson scale ranks hurricanes on a scale of 1 to 5, based on their maximum sustained wind speed. A Category 5 hurricane is the most intense.

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Measuring wind speed -

In order to measure wind speed, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) flies reconnaissance aircraft over the sea in affected areas.

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Reconnaissance aircraft -

These aircraft drop instruments that measure the pressure, direction, and speed of the wind as they fall towards the sea.

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Limitations -

While the Saffir-Simpson scale is widely recognized and is considered an effective way to estimate potential property damage, it has several limitations.

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The water problem -

Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, it does not take into account other potentially deadly hurricane impacts, such as storm surge, heavy rainfall, or flooding.

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Significant problem -

This is significant when we consider that the greatest threat to life in the event of a hurricane comes from water, not from wind.

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Statistics -

Indeed, according to the Florida Climate Center at Florida State University, 90% of all hurricane-related deaths globally are caused by drowning.

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Risk of drowning -

This drowning could either be the result of storm surges or flooding caused by extreme rainfall as the result of the hurricane.

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Case in point -

Let's take Hurricane Sandy as an example. This extremely large tropical cyclone ravaged large areas of the Caribbean and coastal United States in October 2012.

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Sandy as Category 1 -

At its peak intensity, Sandy was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall in Cuba. However, it did most of its damage after becoming a Category 1 hurricane while off the coast of the Northeastern United States.

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Devastation -

Indeed, Sandy caused severe coastal flooding, which destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes and led to damage totaling around US$88.5 billion.

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Impetus for change -

Examples like this are one of the reasons that scientists are pushing for a new system of hurricane classification that considers water damage.

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The problem of size -

Another limitation of the Saffir-Simpson scale is that it does not consider the overall size of a hurricane, nor the horizontal distribution of the winds.

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Fresh ideas -

Bearing this in mind, meteorology professor Vasu Misra has developed a new metric to measure the destructive power of hurricanes.

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TIKE -

It is known as Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (or TIKE) and is meant to complement, rather than replace, the Saffir-Simpson scale.

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Relies on satellites -

The TIKE metric measures the size of the wind field, along with the intensity and overall lifespan of the storm. It relies on satellites rather than using reconnaissance aircraft.

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Remaining challenges -

There are still significant challenges to overcome before scientists can rely on TIKE, however. For example, cloud cover during hurricanes can make it difficult to get accurate data.

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Location, location, location - Additionally, there are still large swathes of the world’s oceans for which satellite estimates are simply not available, due to the satellites’ locations.

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Going forward -

As a practical solution to the problem, some experts are calling for the introduction of a traffic light system to classify hurricanes.

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Basic concept -

The basic idea would be simply to rate the magnitude of risk for each hurricane on a color scale and issue a yellow, amber, or red alert.

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Inspired by UK Met Office -

It would be along the lines of the system that the UK Met Office currently uses for ordinary weather forecasts.

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Personalized approach -

The approach could be more personalized, with an app that provides people with information about the probability that various severe weather events will occur in their area.

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Helping people on the ground -

This would enable people to understand the personal level of risk to which they are exposed, and to take the necessary precautions.

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Adding a Category 6 -

Given that hurricanes are also becoming more intense as ocean temperatures rise, some scientists have also made the case for adding a Category 6 to the existing Saffir-Simpson scale.

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The rationale -

The rationale for this is that there have already been hurricanes that surpassed the theoretical threshold for Category 6, and there is no reason to cap it.

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Controversy -

This proposal has been met with resistance, however, since some fear that a new category could encourage people to dismiss Category 5 hurricanes, despite their potential to cause catastrophic damage.

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In conclusion -

We may be some way off an ideal solution when it comes to classifying hurricanes. What seems clear for the moment, however, is that the Saffir-Simpson scale cannot be considered the single source of truth.

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Access to information -

The public would likely benefit from more detailed information about each potential hurricane, particularly when it comes to surges and rainfall flooding.

Sources: (BBC) (NOAA)

See also: What do hurricane categories actually mean?

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