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Race for AGI -

The United States and China have pitted themselves against each other in the race for smarter-than-human artificial intelligence, commonly referred to as artificial general intelligence (AGI).

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US struggles -

The geopolitical battle between the nations is playing out in nearly every sector, as the United States struggles to keep up with China’s stamina. In the development of AGI, the competition is no different.

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Sam Altman -

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, thinks AGI is closer than we think, predicting it will be active by 2025. Other technology firms deem Altman’s claim as overly ambitious, with some expressing a timeline closer to 2035.

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Hopium war -

President of think tank Future of Life Institute Max Tegmark refers to the nations’ race toward groundbreaking AGI technology as the “hopium war… fueled by delusional hope that we can control AGI.”

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Guardrails needed -

Tegmark, along with other tech leaders, such as Elon Musk, penned a letter in 2023 calling on AI initiatives to stop the development of advanced AI systems temporarily until guardrails can be put in place to hone in on its capacities.

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What do guardrails mean in the context of AGI development? -

Experts worry about AI’s capacity to independently improve itself and produce new systems independently, creating some safety risks.

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AI safety summit -

As domestic regulations remain scarce regarding AI development, international frameworks are equally behind, but there are efforts to streamline this process. In 2023, the United Kingdom hosted an AI safety summit to try to progress the development of guardrails.

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Regulatory needs -

AI leaders argue that only when the dangers of speedy competition are viewed as greater than the rewards of being first in the race will nations be able to focus on pressing regulatory needs.

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No understanding -

These tech leaders are concerned that the rising tensions between the United States and China are causing fast-paced advancements that focus on building AGI, but without an understanding on how to control it.

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Strategic priority -

According to a CNBC report on the matter, the concern of shaping AI development, while still advancing their efforts, is a strategic priority for the Chinese government.

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Censorship -

This is evident in China’s approach to censorship. For example, the internet in China is under heavy ideological censorship. Platforms like ChatGPT are unable to answer questions related to topics considered ‘sensitive,’ such as politics.

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Domestic priorities -

At the same time that China seeks to advance and develop its AI technology, it also seeks to do so while balancing its own domestic political priorities.

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Firms developing own models -

Some of China’s biggest firms, for example, Tencent, Huawei, and Alibaba, have developed their own AI models, which are in constant processes of development and advancement.

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China produces regulations -

The Chinese government was one of the first nations to produce and implement regulations in terms of diverse facets of AI.

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Techno-regulatory apparatus -

Their approach to AI is likely similar to their approach to their initiatives in developing AGI. Trivium China, a consultancy, argues that China will seek to “dominate AGI while creating a techno-regulatory apparatus that limits” its capacities among citizens.

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US trying to implement restrictions -

The United States, concerned that it will continue to fall behind China’s ambitious drive, is trying to implement restrictions where it can, such as limiting access to certain materials or technologies.

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China producing own hardware -

An example of such is America’s attempt to limit China’s access to semiconductors, an important hardware necessary to advance AI models. To this, China responded by beginning to produce their own.

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Innovative responses -

Oftentimes, the more the United States attempts to restrict China’s access to technology or resources, the more the nation becomes innovative in its responses.

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Supply chain -

There are 17 elements needed to make the world’s tech products. Gaining access to these materials and dominating the supply chain is also another key area in which the US and China continue to compete, which echoes in the tech race.

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China leads -

In the race for critical minerals and rare earths, China is also in the lead. China produces 60% of the globe’s rare earth mineral supply, amounting to 90% of the world’s refined output.

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Nationalizing refineries -

Between low labor costs, questionable environmental standards, and access to rare earth minerals, China has dominated supply. Recently, China has been nationalizing refineries, even those foreign-owned, sparking concerns of their impending monopolization.

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Scramble -

While other leading nations scramble to access different supply chains to lessen their dependence on China, they struggle to keep up due to environmental regulations and the high investment costs that access requires.

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Tariff fight -

In the midst of the tariff fight between the United States and China, measures to further restrict raw materials are the main form of leverage that the communist state can use.

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Supply chain issues -

If this kind of strategy continues to be pushed by China, the US may experience serious supply chain issues, further compromising its ability to keep up with AI development.

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Tech Cold War -

Some analysts refer to this attempt of the nations to outmaneuver each other as the "tech Cold War,” a reference that continues to emerge among rising tensions.

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"Manhattan Project-like program" -

With the impending Trump administration, these tensions are set to further escalate. Trump has called for a “Manhattan Project-like program”, referring to the secret initiative that first developed nuclear weaponry, to build up America’s position in the AGI sphere.

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Donald Trump -

In a June 2024 interview, Trump said: "We have to be at the forefront [of AI]… We have to take the lead over China, China is the primary threat."

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Recent report -

Yet, at the moment, the numbers speak for themselves. In a 2024 report, there were over 50 Chinese companies developing AI models, in comparison to a handful in the US.

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At what cost? -

The Trump administration is sure to make a splash in the advancement of AI tools and technology, pushing towards the speedy development of AGI technology to try to overtake China’s position. But at what cost?

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International community raises concerns -

Environmental degradation, AI safety concerns, and the outbreak of further geopolitical tensions continue to provoke serious concerns for the international community.

Sources: (CNBC) (Business Insider) (Global Finance Magazine) (International Energy Agency) (Fortune)

See also: The bullet train that China is building for power

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