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BRICS+ 2024 summit -

Leaders of the nine member states of the BRICS+ group attending the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, are expected to address further expansion and trade during the two-day gathering.

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Hosted by Russia -

Chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who'd earlier hosted a BRICS business forum and similar meetings in Moscow, the summit is expected to attract around 30 countries.

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BRICS 2024 -

The BRICS+ summit in Kazan is being closely monitored for potential developments in economic cooperation and currency strategies. But how exactly does the BRICS+ group function, and what are its origins?

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What is BRICS? -

In August 2023, the 15th BRICS summit took place in Johannesburg, South Africa. BRICS is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

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Why was BRICS established? -

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa represent the founding countries of an informal grouping of emerging economies established on the premise that international institutions are overly dominated by Western powers and cease to serve developing nations.

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Further expansion -

During the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, it was announced that Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates would join the alliance. Saudi Arabia was also invited to join but has not yet formally done so.

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BRICS motto -

On January 1, 2024, Russia was passed the baton of the BRICS chair. Russia took over under the motto "Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security." In his speech to delegates, President Vladimir Putin maintained that Russia would continue to promote all aspects of the BRICS partnership in three key areas: politics and security, economy and finance, and cultural and humanitarian contacts.

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Argentina declines to join -

Argentina was due to join BRICS on January 1, 2024. However, newly elected President Javier Milei announced that the country would not take part in the bloc.

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Origins of BRICS -

The founding countries of BRICs—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—held their first summit in Yekaterinburg in 2009. South Africa joined the bloc the following year. The BRICs officially became the BRICS.

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A major geopolitical force -

Since then the BRICS+ group, as the organization has been informally called since its expansion, has become a major geopolitical force, their governments meeting annually at formal summits and coordinating multilateral policies.

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BRICS' global influence -

Combined, the BRICS+ members encompass about 30% of the world's land surface and 45% of the global population. The bloc represents about 37.3% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP).

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An alternative to the G7 -

The BRICS+ countries are considered the foremost geopolitical rival to the G7 bloc—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The European Union (EU) has participated fully in the G7 since 1981 as a "nonenumerated" member.

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Russia's suspension -

Russia had been a formal member (as part of the G8) from 1997 until its expulsion in 2014, suspended indefinitely after its invasion and occupation of Crimea.

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G7 vs. BRICS+ -

The advanced economies that make up the G7 account for only around a quarter of the world's population. Despite this, G7 members states (not including the EU) make up about 43% of the global economy.

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G7 and BRICS+ growth forecast -

In 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its economic growth forecasts. The chart illustrates how G7 and BRICS+ nations compare. According to IMF projections, the BRICS+ group is expected to overtake the G7 in terms of GDP in the coming years, although predictions have varied as to when this will occur.

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Tensions emerge -

But while growing membership of the bloc is strengthening its geopolitical and economic clout, it has at the same time introduced new tensions.

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Internal division -

The bloc has struggled with internal divisions on a range of issues, including relations with the United States and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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Divided loyalties -

The group has attempted to exert influence over the wars in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine. In November 2023 during virtual talks organized by then BRICS chair South Africa, the bloc discussed the Gaza conflict but failed to agree on a joint declaration. And Russia's invasion of Ukraine has divided loyalties.

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Shaping global economics -

The BRICS+ group is also at odds as to how the global economic system should be shaped.

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Fluctuating fortunes -

While economic growth rates were once robust among every one of the five BRICS nations, they now differ wildly. India continues to record above-average figures, but Brazil, Russia, and South Africa have been flagging for several years. Meanwhile, China's 2024 growth forecast has been downgraded to a near negligible 5%, down from 12.7% in 2006, the year foreign ministers of the initial four BRIC nations first met.

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Fraught relationships -

Of all the BRICS+ nations, China and India have the most fraught relationship. India is the only BRICS+ member strengthening its strategic ties with the West while maintaining a tense alliance with China. In fact, according to the Global Policy Journal, the India–China rivalry could render BRICS+ dysfunctional.

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Quad Fellowship -

Complicating matters is the fact that India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or "Quad" group, together with Australia, Japan, and the US. This puts Narendra Modi's administration at odds with Beijing as the alliance is working to quell China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

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An alternative to the US dollar? -

One of the bloc's principle aims is to come up with viable alternatives to the global dominance of the US dollar. Instead, the group wants to create a common currency for trade and investment between each other. Gold is likely to play a role in any new currency development. However, most financial analysts believe the risk of so-called "de-dollarization" posed by the BRICS+ is overexaggerated.

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Iran's role in BRICS -

Iran's inclusion in the BRICS+ group was seen by analysts as an effort to reverse the impact of US sanctions and overcome its isolation. The country hopes to benefit from increased legitimacy despite domestic unrest, and more trade with growing economies.

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Does BRICS pose a threat to the US? -

Since BRICS was founded in Yekaterinburg in 2009, the question on the lips of many in Washington is whether the bloc poses a strategic threat to the United States. The short answer is no.

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"Partnership of convenience" -

As the Geopolitical Monitor pointed out in its September 2023 Situation Report, BRICS has always been regarded as a "partnership of convenience."

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"Divergent perspectives" -

The criteria to join the bloc are vague. There is no charter and no fixed secretariat. Its ideology is incoherent, characterized "by issues ranging from internal conflicts of interest to divergent international perspectives."

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The Western model -

Unlike the BRICS+, Western institutions led by Washington are united by core values like democracy, reminds the Geopolitical Monitor. It cites NATO as a unifying example, a shield that has successfully protected North American and European democracies since the end of the Second World War.

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European Union -

NATO's success is replicated by other Western institutions and organizations, which include political establishments like the European Union.

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Diplomatic forum -

Diplomatic forums such as the aforementioned G7, which has been coordinating global economic policy and addressing other transnational issues for 50 years, is another example of a system governed by unified democracy. And lately the G7 has been courting India and South Africa, and they've become regular invitees at the group's summits.

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BRICS+ set to expand further -

Nevertheless, by opening its doors wider the BRICS+ is attracting additional country hopefuls: more than 40 nations have expressed interest in joining, and at least 20 reportedly applied to join after the 2023 summit expansion.

Sources: (Council on Foreign Relations) (European Parliament) (Responsible Statecraft) (Global Policy Journal) (Reuters) (Geopolitical Monitor) (Foreign Policy) 

See also: Putin threatens military conflict with NATO

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